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Efraim Neto's Blog
Efraim Neto's Blog
O fim da economia do petróleo barato
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The end of the economy of the cheap oil
Automatically translated into English thanks to WorldLingo
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Raymundo de Oliveira

the oil economically started to be explored from the second half of century XIX. Initiating for U.S.A., the production was growing systematically. Of the destillation of that black mass, if it took off of everything: kerosene, gasoline, diesel, combustible oil, gas, plastics…

Os derivados de petróleo se tornaram indispensáveis e ficamos inteiramente dependentes deles na energia que usamos, em nossas vestimentas, na produção de alimentos, nos multiusos dos plásticos, nos transportes, nas tintas, em tudo.

It is to look at for the sides and what we see is of derived it, directly or indirectly. E more, its extration and use were very cheap. From there our increasing dependence. We were abandoning our old customs and we do not know more life without it.

The production was growing and our dependence if accenting!

U.S.A. was the producing greaters and in the first decades of century XX if they had become the exporting greaters of oil, with the production growing in sped up rhythm. The oil was the fuel of the great industrial revolution of the turn of century XX, being the automobile industry the great pointer of industrialization. It is son of the cheap oil, of easy extration.

Although initially concentrated in U.S.A., the exporting greater, the discoveries of new petroliferous regions had been if spreading in the world.

However, the oil is finite, does not offer two harvests: it used, is used. Not plant, does not multiply. Today esteem that, in the total, the humanity received from deuses about two trillions barrels usable oil, adding itself what already one uncovered with what still must be discovered.

In middle of the passed century, decade of fifty, a North American geologist, King Hubbert, analyzing the discoveries of oil in U.S.A., and the description of the productions of the diverse fields, considered a mathematical model and of it it concluded after that the American production would pass at the beginning for a maximum of the decade of 70, what, would start to decay gradually. It is the Arched call of Hubbert, fellow creature to the Normal Curve.

Its model was received with incredulity, ahead of the increasing American production. Unhappyly, it makes right in the fly. In fact, in the first years of the decade of seventy, the production of U.S.A. if stabilizes e, then later, it starts to fall. Isso os forçou a reduzir a produção e importar maciçamente.

As the use of the oil derivatives she continued to grow, today they are not more the exporting greaters and yes the import greaters of oil of the world. The American production is a small parcel of its consumption. If they depended exclusively on its reserves, them would be zeroed in less than four years. U.S.A. possesss 3% of the reserves and consumes 25% of the world-wide production of oil. From there the necessity to import, and to import each time more.

From its rightness, the theories of the Hubbert had passed to be taken the serious one. Its model was reproduced in the reserves of the Sea of the North and if it confirmed.

Today, its followers shape the reserves of the world and the conclusions are preoccupying: they is esteem after that the peak of the production will have to be given between 2005 and 2010, what it will go falling to the few. Some optimists find that the maximum of the production alone goes to give itself in 2015. Had to the production oscillations, a little is delayed if to perceive the ticket of the peak.

This maximum represents the moment where already half of the available reserves was consumed. Thus, being passing for the peak, it is signal of that already we consume first the trillion of barrels and enter in the production of the second half.

Clearly she is that the first half was of more easy production, accessible, cheaper. What in it remains them is the part each more difficult time, more expensive.

The human being already reasonable knows the subsoil of the Land. The hopes of enormous discoveries are not great, the example of what it had in the first half of century XX. It has new fields, however one does not expect to discover a new Middle East. The maximum of the discoveries if gave in 1964. Since then, the great lesser discoveries are each time.

Let us imagine what its production will happen with the price of the oil when to start to fall systematically, year the year. The price tends to go off.

Porém, o consumo de petróleo é bastante inelástico e, inicialmente, deve responder lentamente ao aumento do preço. In result the price will grow of that it uses oil, that is, of almost everything that in we accustom them to use.

We go to have homesickness of the time where the oil cost 100 dollars the barrel!

Some consequences of the gone off one of the price of the oil can be esteem: the cost of the transports also goes to the heights and the price of foods, ahead of the dependence of oil derivatives, in the fertilizer production. In synthesis, she is shaken our current way to live, deeply dependent of the cheap oil.

Let us see the life of an American high middle class. It deferred payment has one hundred km of its workstation, in the “suburbs”. There it lives in its casinha, with dog and swimming pool, woman and two children. Vai for the job with its automobile that weighs three tons, consumes one liter to each six km and makes two hundred km/h, in a auto-road of four tracks for each side. This is only possible for the existence of the cheap oil. Going off the price, this standard of living will be shaken.

However, Dick Cheney, current vice of president George W. Bush, already affirmed: “our standard of living is unnegotiable”.

For U.S.A. they had much less invaded Iraq and they are if possessing of its reserves of oil, the third greater of the planet, under the false justification of that president Sadan Hussein would have weapons of massive destruction. However, the Middle East is deeply unstable region.

Today, the importations of oil of Venezuela for U.S.A. are great. Venezuela is there of the side, and its president Hugo Chaves has not demonstrated great simpatias for the current North American governing.

Ahead of the inevitable crisis of the oil and the unnegotiable standard of living of the American, we have at sight crisis, in special in the Colombia-Venezuela border. U.S.A. it does not interest peace in the region. O conflito é a porta de entrada da guerra, acesso mais garantido ao petróleo venezuelano.

This crisis is alone one of that they are being potencializadas for the beginning of the end of the cheap oil.

Old, each people developed its food cultures in next places where he lived. Today, thanks to the cheap oil, soy in Brazil, or U.S.A. stands itself, and if it consumes in China. This is only possible for the cheap transport, cheap oil.

E what it is worse, lost it culture of the old food production distributed. The intent production, more efficient, tends to be more homogeneous. Amongst the options, is stood that it offers it income better, abandoning the others, losing diversity, scrumbling itself the options that had previously. Some of these options, abandoned on behalf of the increase of the efficiency, were options adjusted in other regions, when the production was not intent, as today. The human being goes being with little degree of freedom, with little options.

With the end of the cheap transport, it goes to have necessity of if coming back to produce foods close to house: at sight crisis due to foods, therefore was lost the culture of the distributed production.

The cheap oil in pushed them for a reality of deep dependence. We are vitiated in its products.

The consumption society is reflected of this cheap oil. Produzimos o supérfluo, consumimos esse supérfluo e precisamos produzir mais dele, para manter a economia funcionando. The cheap oil has been the fuel of this logic.

We badly use little and each new product that arrives at the market, induced for eficientíssima propaganda. Before depleting its use, when still it has much to offer, we play except this product and we acquire the new merchandise that arrives. Frequent, the “new” is the old one with some superfluous ornaments, supported in competent campaign of marketing.

This permanent one uses and plays outside alone has been possible for the abundance of cheap energy: the fall of the production costs feeds the wastefulness and consumption society.

The end of the economy of the cheap oil goes to shake this logic where we have survived. It is our way to live that she is threatened.

Ahead of the vision of the crisis of the oil, admittedly finite resource and with increasing consumption, has searched it desesperadamente alternative. Of the solar energy to the aeolian one, of the nuclear one to the coal, the agro-fuel to the economy of hydrogen.

The energies solar and aeolian have great potential of growth and will be, surely, most useful in small communities or for located questions. They do not have any condition to answer to the necessities of the society of the automobile and wastefulness.

The nuclear one, with still hanging questions of security guard, has limitation how much to the existing reserves.

The coal, with enormous reserves, if used to substitute the decurrent necessities of the fall of the oil production, will take the pollution the terrible levels.

The hydrogen sponge is much more an energy transporter, of low income, that a generating, in special for the decurrent necessities of the previsible fall in the oil production.

In the agro-fuel, the example of the pro-alcohol has had unquestionable success in the substitution of the gasoline. To try to mundializar this solution brings the risk to threaten the food production, in a hungry world. Between producing food for poor person or “gasoline” for car of rich, the logic of the Capital will be implacable and will see great extensions of land deviated of nourishing agriculture. The prices of foods go to go off. E, still thus, does not have enough land for the hundreds of millions of cars.

In fact, the gift that in had given deuses to them, two trillions of barrels of oil, to vitiated them. We are enslaved of the logic of the consumption society.

She is necessary to think about another logic, another way of in relating them with the nature and the other human beings. É fundamental buscarmos uma sociedade menos dependente de energia, em vez de só procurarmos produzir mais e mais energia. This way in is taking them to a dead-end.

When the world was infinite presumption, always with new borders to conquer, the logic of the expanded reproduction brought enormous development. The progress, with all its defects, was fantastic. It is to look at and to see the growth of the production, the fall of infantile mortality, the increase of the average life of the human being, where the proper growth of the population is a pointer clearly.

Today, the “world is finite”. It does not have more borders to conquer. We had IDO Mars, Jupiter, Venus, and the logic of the expanded reproduction could remain. Into a finite world, this logic if transforms into one metástase of the society human being, threatening the body of that proper it if feeds. At risk the life human being, our survival in our planet.

To search another logic in the relation man/woman with the nature and the other human beings is imperious necessity of our proper survival. I do not know if it has time for this construction. The barbarity is a not worthless possibility.

While it has hope, hands to the workmanship!

Raymundo de Oliveira

President of the House of Latin America